| At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I | | | | everything. The class rating that Equibase assigned |
| would like to state a few things (you may | | | | to the #1, Time to Getit, was 64. Of the six |
| consider them tips) and then give an excellent | | | | starters in the race, that was the lowest class |
| example to back up the claims I am about to | | | | rating. A look at Time to Getit's past |
| make. First of all, if you want to make a profit at | | | | performances made me question that low class |
| your horse racing handicapping, some longshots | | | | rating and his lines made me sit up and take |
| are good bets. Secondly, all longshots and | | | | notice. He had just raced at Churchill Downs in a |
| favorites are not created equally. Third, in order | | | | $30,000 claimer for nw-3, at a distance of a mile |
| to make a profit at the races, you have to have | | | | and a sixteenth. He had raced within a length of |
| a good betting strategy, a good system, and | | | | the leader throughout much of the race, but |
| think for yourself. That not only means going | | | | stopped while going three wide and finished 6th. |
| against the crowd, but also going against published | | | | But as we all know, pace plays an important part |
| data. | | | | in racing and winning and Time to Getit had shown |
| Here is an example and you may use the | | | | some good speed for 6 furlongs against tougher |
| methodology as part of a system for betting. At | | | | horses over the same surface he was racing on |
| Churchill Downs on Wednesday, June 18, 2008, | | | | in this race. |
| the first race was a $15,000 claiming event for | | | | He had the very capable Jamie Theriot in the |
| three year olds and upward at a distance of 6 | | | | irons, who incidentally, went on to win 5 races on |
| furlongs. The favorite, at 8-5 odds was the #3 | | | | that program. Going a shorter distance and |
| Hollywood Berti, a lightly raced three year old | | | | dropping in class, after putting up a good |
| gelding who was shipping in from Arlington Park | | | | performance, made me think the #1 was a |
| where he had a race after a previous race at | | | | pretty classy horse. The real clincher that made |
| Keeneland and races at Turf Paradise (all those | | | | me back him at the window was that he was the |
| tracks have synthetic surfaces). The #3 had won | | | | biggest longshot at 11-1 odds. Now think about |
| at the distance of 6 furlongs and showed a good | | | | those two horses and consider your betting |
| turn of early speed, but had never raced on | | | | strategy for a minute. The unproven favorite is |
| natural dirt. | | | | at 8-5 while another horse who has actually |
| So, in other words, the favorite had never raced | | | | shown some speed and an ability to handle the |
| on the track or won on the track. He showed | | | | surface is at 11-1. Which is the better bet? Maybe |
| some good works on the track but good works, | | | | the crowd was looking at that Equibase class |
| as we all know, are not the same thing as real | | | | rating or some other numbers that appealed to |
| races. This is the kind of situation that makes | | | | them, but for me, the fact that the horse was |
| horse racing handicapping so much fun and so | | | | dropping in class and shortening up after setting |
| profitable at times. Hollywood Berti, in my opinion, | | | | good fractions was enough to go against the |
| was a false favorite. Though he was a nice | | | | crowd. |
| looking horse, I didn't think he was worth such a | | | | #1 Time to Getit, won and paid $24.60 to win. |
| short price (another tip - don't take less than 2-1 | | | | The #3 Hollywood Berti, didn't handle the surface |
| odds if you want to make money at this game). | | | | well. His line reads, "shuffled back start." He |
| He hadn't proven how he would handle the dirt | | | | finished last and may not have handled the |
| surface and also hadn't won at that track. | | | | surface or maybe he really did get in trouble at |
| Furthermore, he had just failed in a $15,000 | | | | the beginning of the race. I will have to see him |
| claimer at Arlington Park. While an open claimer is | | | | race on natural dirt and win before I back him on |
| more classy than a claimer for non winners in | | | | that surface. |
| many cases, I didn't see it as that much of a | | | | Here's the point. Think for yourself and decide for |
| class drop and his third place finish did not impress | | | | yourself who the class of the race is and look for |
| me. | | | | good odds on a classy horse when the favorite is |
| I was using an Equibase program for my | | | | suspect. Don't settle for short odds on any horse. |
| handicapping. I am not disparaging Equibase. They | | | | Any horse can be beaten. Use a systematic |
| are a good company and make good products, | | | | approach and good betting strategy to win and |
| but they are not infallible and here is why you | | | | you will be successful with your horse racing |
| have to think for yourself and question | | | | handicapping. |