| The favourite win ratios for novice chases are | | | | chasing. They often do quite well especially as |
| again particularly good at around 48%. Needless | | | | lower grade handicap chasers can often become |
| to the say the starting prices for these favourites | | | | rather jaded. In contrast, novice chasers moving |
| can be quite poor. Again selectivity in advance of | | | | up too soon to higher grade handicap chases can |
| the crowds and pundits is the key to profit. | | | | struggle badly. At this level jumping ability required |
| Betting in novice chases | | | | for chasing success is born from great |
| As you may be aware my work aims toward the | | | | experience. |
| development of semi automated systems but I | | | | Distance, going, fitness and breeding |
| have spent many years in the search for a fully | | | | Jumps racing trainers and owners are not |
| automated horse racing system that could be | | | | generally as concerned about placing horses in a |
| viable using Bet Angel or Market Feeders excel | | | | race. Obviously there are exceptions, particularly in |
| automation in conjunction with Betfair exchange | | | | the higher grade racing and where the bigger |
| betting. | | | | yards are concerned. There is a sense that these |
| In 2007 in discussion with my colleague at | | | | are somewhat older, tougher animals with greater |
| Hereford we calculated that in 21 non handicap | | | | stamina, capable of withstanding greater diversion |
| chases at Hereford since 2002, 12 clear favourites | | | | from their ideal race conditions as oppose to their |
| had gone on to win the race when the race was | | | | highly sensitive flat racing pedigrees. |
| over 3 miles and that solid profits would result | | | | However there is no doubt for the form student |
| from automatic backing of horses at starting | | | | that attention to the race conditions can pay |
| price in these races. | | | | healthy dividends in terms of selectivity. Just as |
| I broadened the search based on every race | | | | with flat racing the race horses generally tend to |
| course in the UK for non handicap chases over 3 | | | | fare best on good ground but most can handle |
| miles since 2004 using system betting software | | | | soft as well. |
| to generate the betfair odds for the favourites | | | | Mudlarks |
| when they were at the post and again the profit | | | | Some winter horses are reserved specifically for |
| results were outstanding. Novice chases are more | | | | the heavy going and simply thrive on it, they are |
| about jumping ability as oppose to novice hurdles | | | | often referred to as "mudlarks". There are |
| which are more about speed. Despite the high | | | | several theories relating to a horses ability on mud |
| winning % of favourites, a good degree of | | | | mostly related to the way a horse drives its |
| selectivity is required to avoid what are often | | | | hooves into the ground.o One theory is that |
| very dodgy jumpers in their 1st year. | | | | light-footed horses which skim along on the |
| What to look for in a novice chase: | | | | surface of good or hard ground struggle to |
| 1/ Good novice chasing prospects are usually | | | | accelerate on heavy ground, whereas heavy |
| spotted by breeding, physical prowess and a good | | | | footed horses that drive their hooves into the |
| lively demeanour. Chasers may often have | | | | turf are able to gain more traction in the mud.o |
| started training with hurdles at around 5,6 or 7 | | | | Another theory is that horses that put their toes |
| year olds, they may then have a few runs in low | | | | down before their heel get better traction and slip |
| quality company before being pushed up a good | | | | less so performing better on mud.o Another |
| few notches in class. | | | | theory is that gallops where the horse regularly |
| Obviously its not that easy for the average | | | | trains are also relevant in terms of the going. |
| punter to spot these types well enough in | | | | Horses that are regularly trained on heavy wet |
| advance to get a good price but if you are able | | | | ground will develop some affinity to it. |
| to develop your racing connections then these | | | | The truth is that there are no definitive studies on |
| type of horses can be a great find. Just as with | | | | the subject so previous form or sireage are your |
| any type of horse race betting, after a few wins | | | | best guides for spotting mudlarks. You might |
| starting prices can start to slide dramatically. | | | | expect that jumpers travelling longer distances on |
| 2/ Good hurdlers as they grow older start to lose | | | | more difficult winter ground would require more |
| some of their speed before they start to lose | | | | recovery time than their flat racing counterparts, |
| their jumping ability. For the owners and trainers | | | | but again these are tougher more mature animals |
| this can be a lucrative time to put these horses | | | | with more stamina and the stats show that most |
| to the higher chasing fences. If you can spot | | | | jumps horses fare best when racing again within a |
| these horses well in advance and get them on | | | | relatively short timeframe, and definitely within 14 |
| their debut you can often get some lucrative | | | | days. |
| prices, again after an initial victory starting prices | | | | Breeding and Ground conditions. |
| can start to slide rapidly. | | | | Breeding affects National Hunt race horses in |
| 3/ Sometimes failed hurdlers are put to the chase | | | | terms of class and ability exactly the same as |
| fences as a last ditch attempt to find their niche. | | | | with flat racing, however to a somewhat lesser |
| This very rarely works. If a horse struggles with | | | | degree. What stallions do appear to pass onto |
| hurdles it almost never runs much better over | | | | their progeny is a liking for a particular type of |
| fences. Avoid. | | | | going. I.e. stallions that fare well on heavy ground |
| Novice chasers - moving up | | | | specifically impart this same ability to their |
| Novice chasers in lower grades that have been | | | | offspring and this can be extremely useful data to |
| doing well are often then moved up to handicap | | | | form students. |